ryou, kyou, and darwin’s theorem

I started writing a post responding to “they forgot one thing; they forgot about mikuru in HD,” and I really wasn’t happy with what I was writing. Believe it or not, I think the problem was that I was writing too much. It’s hard to make a point when it gets lost in 3,000+ words.

(And don’t ask me why there’s a sudden spike of furry images on Derailed. Inexplicable, and, if you check your RSS reader at noon, it only get worse.)

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I think I get the gist from what most people are telling me. A lot of other people think that the system currently isn’t one that will hold up for much longer. The writing is on the wall, and DVD sales have been plummeting. It’s not something limited to anime, but it is the only lifeline for a lot of these Japanese studios. Unlike Hollywood who has an incredibly large market and box office sales, anime primarily only has the DVD sales. I can see why the studios would blame fansub, since it is an easy scapegoat, but these are the same people who work the hardest to promote the product for free. It’s a knife in the back.

A few others complained that they are sick of hearing about this topic. I’m sick of hearing about global climate change. Does it mean that because I’m sick of hearing about it, it’ll go away and magically fix itself? I wrote because I want to join the bandwagon. I want to tell the industry that “Hey, the future is coming sooner than later.” I want to tell my readers to do the same. That’s what grassroots is about. It’s no different than someone telling me “Kyou x Ryou fanservice is awesome.” I go see it; agree or disagree; and pass the word along. And don’t tell me you’ll ever get tired of right clicking -> save as Kyou x Ryou fanservice.

People also pointed out flaws with electronic distribution and whatnot. There’s flaws with everything in life. There’s flaws in what you decided to eat for breakfast today (even if you had a Stubbs). There’s flaws in Lord of the Rings. There’s flaws in Kyou x Ryou fanservice. There’s flaws in DVDs. There’s flaws in electronic distribution. The point isn’t this flaw or that flaw, but whatever flaws there are, they aren’t unworkable. The fundamental flaw of DVDs is that they are going the way of the Laserdisc, and no quashing of fansubs will stop that. Consumers have voted. Services like iTunes and Netflix have been growing while DVDs have been declining: we want a cheaper, easier, faster way to our media, and, whether the studio likes it or not, it will happen. The studios had a great and very profitable run with DVDs, but it’s time to move on. Yes, there’s flaws with licensing (is it that hard to rework licenses to be a percentage of sales rather than a fixed upfront amount?), there’s flaws with broadband access (hint: iPhone, YouTube, and how a 5 meg Flash file can bring so much amusement), there’s flaws with DRM (don’t do it), but they’re not unworkable. There’s solutions. Unfortunately, if the industry thinks going RIAA is a solution to save DVD sales, I think hope has left the building.

We live in a free market, and the best products and the best services rise up. It’s Darwinism at its capitalistic best. There’s always going to be someone waiting to take you out. Entertainment is no different and probably even more ruthless due to the vast amount of options available today. While the DVD market is suffering due to the studios ineptness at giving the consumer what they want, the gaming market has been outpacing the whole US economy. While the choices of Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft haven’t been flawless, combined, they are at least responsive to what the consumer wants. The consumer wanted games that everyone could enjoy, and that’s what Mario and Guitar Hero have delivered. They didn’t want fancy graphics or companies using polygons/second as an e-Penis, they just wanted fun games. And I’m glad at least two of the three companies are responding to that mandate.

The key is, though, is to match what the consumer wants, and not be half-assed about it. As I stated before, it’s very easy to take out the fansub groups and make a penny doing so: make purchasable copies available within a week of airing. As iTunes has proved, people don’t care about the quality as so much the opportunity to enjoy something timely. (And, of course, the option to purchase HD content is a huge bonus, but let’s start off slow if we must.) I’m watching HD Clannad, and it’s actually kinda painful. A lot of my friends and peers are watching the gimped version, and I feel like a leper crossed with a slowpoke.jpg being a month behind everyone because I like my Ryou and Kyou scenes in glorious HD. But I’m a minority. Most people want it, and they want it now. Timely availability is key.

While changing revenue models and distribution systems is not an easy thing, it’s always better to take our your own products yourself, rather than have someone else supplant you. While there potentially is a revenue dip (I do think volume and decreased distribution costs will eventually make up for it), it’s been than having no revenue because people just don’t want to fork out $30 a DVD and rather spend it on Super Mario Galaxy or a Kyou x Ryou doujinshi.

19 Responses to “ryou, kyou, and darwin’s theorem”

  1. Sorry, but the rant flew by past me. I kept scrolling up back to Kyou x Ryou fanservice.

  2. Gomennesai, I didn’t even bother to really read the post. i read about three sentences and then stared at the Kyou x Ryou fanservice for about 10 minutes…

  3. I believe the moral of this story is that if you want to make a good point about something, don’t put a picture like that before it, and wait til after your rant to reward us for reading.

  4. Easy economics: to be competative you have to exel in one or more of 3 areas: Quality, Price and Time compared to the competition. Not everyone will go for the cheap and timely but the mayority will as seen.

  5. >>While there potentially is a revenue dip (I do think volume and decreased distribution costs will eventually make up for it), it’s been than having no revenue because people just don’t want to fork out $30 a DVD and rather spend it on Super Mario Galaxy or a Kyou x Ryou doujinshi.

    It’s true, reading a doujinshi in the bathroom without having to worry about battery life and/or mess is worth the money.

  6. Twincest service works like an inverse-inverse square mathematical law, with an eyeball cofactor. Multiply the number of eyes by the square of bodies, and yauh! 4 times the appeal…. so what was this about?

    We should write letters, and use google to translate them into Japanese, then send ’em across the Pacific… in bottles. Only problem is that corporates want solutions from people with titles and degrees, they often pass on suggestions from us common-folk, just like politicians. They really only listen to lobbyists… so who’s going to smack lobby the studios in Japan into a new plan… or we could just keep voting with our dollars and cents, it’ll only be a longer route.

    HD Clannad works fine by me!

  7. Kyou needs twintails. And Ryou needs to text message ‘balsamic vinegar’ to her new girlfriend.

    >>Twincest service works like an inverse-inverse square mathematical law, with an eyeball cofactor. Multiply the number of eyes by the square of bodies, and yauh! 4 times the appeal…

    So… eyepatches don’t result in a net increase in moe?

  8. Its funny you mention the videogame industry because a lot of the problems that plague its companies throughout the years can easily be applied to the anime industry itself, piracy or no piracy.

    Infact I’d be willingly to say what’s causing the ps3 to flounder is a big reason as to why the industry is in the rut it is in currently.

  9. I am watching the non-HD version because the colors seem nicer. When I got the first HD version, it seemed pretty dull, and I don’t know why.

    Sure you get like a little bit extra on the sides, but when the whole thing looks less vibrant, it’s hard to enjoy HD over even regular

  10. There’s flaws in Kyou x Ryou fanservice.

    No, there are no flaws in Kyou x Ryou fanservice

    (is it that hard to rework licenses to be a percentage of sales rather than a fixed upfront amount?)

    Actually, it seems that most licenses are both. The Japanese want the upfront cash so that they get their share no matter how horribly it flops in the US and they want royalties in case it does do well. They want none of the risk and all the reward, and that’s part of what his been hurting the U.S. companies. Unfortunately, it is that hard to change things because the Japanese CEOs and higher ups are a bunch of knuckleheads.

  11. I went past the fanservice and read the entire article (was at work and could not linger on Kyou and Ryou, will linger later at home…). This blog is like Playboy, there are some people who actually read the articles…sorta…probably repeated before, no way no one else pointed this out…

    Anyways, I liked it when EMI had DRM-free music on iTunes. It was more expensive, but it was like the company was telling us this, “We have heard that people want DRM-free music. Here it is. It is a little more expensive because we know that some people will pirate it and we factored that cost in. We will not assume that all people are pirates and place DRM on our songs.” From what I hear, EMI’s sales are up (iTunes lowered the price down to $.99 b/c Amazon came out w/ $.99 DRM-free music–ain’t competition grand?).

    Which would you guys choose?
    1. 640×480 from iTunes (example) for $2 (1 day/week delay, most likely DRMed, will have to be subbed for the speed)
    2. Entire season on DVD for $45 (26 ep, 1 month after it has finished)
    3. Fansubs…why pay?

    Now that I have a good stable job, I’ve gone away from pirating games and am buying legit versions. I have a few anime tapes that I am looking to buy the DVD versions of. I don’t know if I could wait for option 2, especially if I read on the blogs how awesome a series is (like this blog and Gurren Lagann). And while I have purchased a few tracks from iTunes, I am not thrilled w/ getting video from there. If I had to pay $2 an ep, I would have to seriously think about what shows to pick up and limit myself to maybe 2-3 series a season. Also, it will have to have DRM because of the difference between music and video. You will likely listen to the same song maybe 15-20 times so $1 a song is pretty decent and an easy buy. How many times will you watch a single anime ep? $2 an episode that you watch maybe 1-4 times is more of a commitment to buy and the companies have to make sure they get every purchase. If there is a good model, then it would be tempting. I always tell my cousins who pirate like mad that you must patron the stuff you like so the companies know what works. Now I just have to donate to PBS and NPR…

    Now as far as HD anime is concerned, I have to wonder how good upscaling will be. The images are technically very simple (lots of areas where there are solid colors) so a decent upscaler shouldn’t have too much trouble going from 480i/p to 1080p. Is it worth an extra $60 for getting all of Clannad on Blu-Ray for the image quality? (HD DVD has an extra feature that allows you to paste an image of your face on a background character–imagine that in anime…)

  12. “There’s flaws in Kyou x Ryou fanservice. ”

    YOU TAKE THAT BACK! YOU TAKE IT BACK RIGHT NOW!

    Seriously though, I have to agree with most of your other points. Jounin brings up an excellent point though, in that the price would have to be competitive with DVD sales, and fast subs would have to be more or less a necessity.

    I think one thing you could do would be to have the option to “subscribe” to a series as it were at any point in a season, so that like if a normal episode is $2 an episode, but if you subscribe to it and basically purchase the entire season, then you get a reduced price.

    Even if it was just a flat $2 an episode though, it would definitely be cheaper then buying the DVDs as they’re released(figure American DVDs cost $20 or so, and usually come with 4-5 episodes per disc, you do the math), and thats American DVDs. In Japan, the price difference alone, even if things went to as much as 500 yen an episode, would still be a huge amount cheaper than their DVD price per episode would equate to(considering the fact that Japanese DVDs might give you 2 episodes a disc and charge you the equivalent of $60 or more).

    And hopefully, however stuck in their ways they may be, Japanese companies will eventually wake up to the fact that they are in business to make money and start going for business models that win for everyone.

    And really I’m sure they could convince some Fansubbers of a certain quality to do nothing but translate anime every week. I bet without that whole having a job/going to college thing most fansubbers deal with, they’d be alot quicker.

  13. Mmmm… Kyou…
    Mmmm… Ryou…
    *Spaces out Fuko-style*

  14. >> Gomennesai, I didn’t even bother to really read the post. i read about three sentences and then stared at the Kyou x Ryou fanservice for about 10 minutes…

    Don’t worry about it. I get that often around here.

    >> No, there are no flaws in Kyou x Ryou fanservice

    Besides the lack of Tomoyo? I think that’s a major flaw.

    >> I am watching the non-HD version because the colors seem nicer. When I got the first HD version, it seemed pretty dull, and I don’t know why.

    Mostly personal preference. I will say that if you have a 24″ or smaller computer monitor device, it probably won’t matter. If you have a nice 42″ LCD or plasma HDTV, it matters. I think the main difference is that most computer monitors are low end LCDs (i.e. TN devices) that might have awesome specs, but just suck at displaying video and games. You really need to get a good LCD (i.e. IPS) or plasma to fully appreciate Kyou and Ryou in HD. You will never think of a bouncing basketball quite the same away again.

    >> Now as far as HD anime is concerned, I have to wonder how good upscaling will be.

    Upscaling isn’t very good. I know some “videophiles” who claim that upscaled DVDs are okay, but they’ve never experienced a real HD source. The problem with upscaled DVDs is the mpeg2 encoding… it’s just not very good compared to h264. There are video processors that you can buy that try to improve the issues from mpeg2, but they’re not cost effective.

    Pure HD source material is fantastic, and once you’ve watched it for a long time, it’s hard to watch normal TV again. I’d love to try out a Blu-Ray version of Clannad someday.

  15. > No, there are no flaws in Kyou x Ryou fanservice

    Besides the lack of Tomoyo? I think that’s a major flaw.”>

    Jesus Christ, you’re right.

  16. Okay, everytime Kyou x Ryou comes up, I keep remembering Jason’s post about how only Kyou has the Haruka-class body. I offer proof that it might be too close to call:

    About 7:24 into ep 1 has a shot of Ryou searching her pockets for her cards. It’s one of the rare times that she doesn’t have her hands in front of her chest. Now the only real way to tell, I guess, is to have Ryou play a little basketball… Kyou x Ryou, one-on-one basketball…can’t believe I just typed that…

  17. They didn’t want fancy graphics or companies using polygons/second as an e-Penis, they just wanted fun games.

    Hey, the first company guilty of this that come in my mind is Square-Enix.

  18. >> No, there are no flaws in Kyou x Ryou fanservice

    Besides the lack of Tomoyo? I think that’s a major flaw.

    Seems to me not so much a flaw as a way to change the entire state of it. Though, admittedly, the whole concept (Kyou x Ryou vs. Kyou x Ryou x Tomoyo) leaves me a bit weak at the knees…

  19. So… eyepatches don’t result in a net increase in moe?

    I probably should have cleared it up, but eyeball multiplication refers to the viewer’s eyes. Of course, moe-patch points are undeniable by me. ^^

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